2002-09-22 回答网友的电邮

问：

Dear klse.8k ,

I am xxx from cari.com forum . Miss you very much.
As you know, this few weeks the market very bad. KLCI even down below 700 point.
What do you think about the market? End of this month, do u still think that the KLCI will put to 800 - 900 point?
Don't misunderstand about me. I am still believed of whatever you said, but the market since like not follow the "tradisional” way.
Normally, during August and September, the market should be up right ...and Octorber to December, the market will come to the top right?
But this year, the market never follows the "tradisiona" way to go ...
July to September keep on down down down.
May i know what your opinion about this is? And do you think the market will up after 20/9?

Hope to receive your mail ASAP.
Thanks.

答：

股市是不按常理来走的。
某月股市是上升的，某月股市是下跌的？我本身是不相信这样的理论。
股市可以连续几个月上升，也可以连续几个月下跌。

我只知道预测股市走向是相当的困难。

不过我还是一样的乐观，我乐观是因为最近的成交量都很低。
2002年第三季就快结束了，到目前为止每日的平均成交量只有3.55亿零吉。根据我的统计这是属于冷水和冰水之间。
低的成交量就表示股市是处于偏低的水平，也就是说上升的机会比下跌的高。
而且悲观的人很多，还是那句老话：群众越悲观我就越乐观。

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问：

Dear KLSE.8K,

Hi! How are you?
Recently ruberex-wa keep drop... are you selling your ruberex-wa away?
I still keep buying. Just today I bought 6 lots ruberex-wa at 0.575.

P/s: hope you don't mind to answer my question...

答：

最近RUBBEREX－W下跌并不关我的事，我并没有卖它。
凭单的投机性很强，遇到跌市就是这样子的了，我们既然要买凭单就得接受这事实。
以你今天买进的价钱0.575来计算，母股的价钱是2.02，所以GEARING就是3.5倍。
(2.02 / 0.575 = 3.51)
这是个很安全的水平。
以投机的眼光来看，这个决定很精明。

对不起，买凭单就是投机，不是投资。
这也是事实。

我的方法是：投资为主，投机为补。
但是，我还是希望年轻人不要投机，只注重投资就可以了！
年轻人有的是青春，何必冒险去投机呢？

要投资，可以考虑LB母股。
我还是认为它是现在最值得投资的股项。
以现在1.89零吉的价钱来计算，本益比只是6倍多而已。

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问：

Dear klse.8k,

I do notice that these few weeks you look a bit free, can i ask do you know what had happen to gold commodity market during 1991 gulf war?
It is strange that the price actually drop drasticly when war started instead of rise, why?

Also I would like to know what had happen 1986 mca's tan kuan chuan case!!! It that what i guess what i know

by the way, i do notice you had run out of topics(about investing method) to discuss in cari forum, any way i personally is very keen on hoping to hear story about the past!!!

Hope to hear from you, bye

答：

我不懂黄金，无法回答你的问题。

陈群川事件我就知道一二，因为那时刚好是我学习投资的时候。
可是我不明白你的问题，无法回答。

我的投资方法很简单，主要是选好的ROE，然后就是低的本益比，所以是大家都知道了的方法。
如果要在讲投资的方法，那就得倾向于技术派了，不过这样子来讲投机的味道就比较重了，怕不适合每个投资者。而且重要的一点是，我本身也没有可以令人信服的投机成绩为后盾。

我暂时不谈我的实战经验，因为我认为要等大牛来了才谈比较适合。
我的实战经验，最精彩的是在失败的案例，所以不适合现在这种时刻。
怕讲了，使人更加没有信心。
而成功的案例，又有自夸的味道，所以也不想谈。

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klse.8k:

hi klse.8k did u receive the mail i send u few days ago about those few share? Can give some advice? Beside that i got a question wanna ask... do u feel Malakoff this share worth to buy? By the time the PE is quite low just 3.xx something... and this share also got a high divend! Hope can get your reply

根据我所知，MALAKOFF最新的九个月业绩是 EPS 0.30零吉。
所以我预测它的全年EPS应该是0.40零吉。以它现在的价钱4.12零吉来计算，它的本益比应该是10倍左右，不是你所说的3倍多。
还是那句话：请先通过KLSE的网站来查阅公司的最新EPS，然后才计算本益比。